Remedies for US Loss of S&T Leadership

March 9th, 2010

Baring a paradigm shift in the PRC, the US will soon trail China in S&T.  There really is not much the US can do to stop this trend.  In theory it could match the PRC’s annual increases in R&D investment, but it’s not politically feasible here where S&T is a marginal issue, not even on the list of most leaders’ priorities.

So what is to be done to mitigate this failure of U.S. S&T policy?  I’m no expert, but don’t know anyone else who is contemplating this almost certain future.  For whatever it is worth…

1. Strengthen alliances. The US has good allies in Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere.  While China will soon pass the US, it cannot pass the combined resources of the US and its allies in the foreseeable future.  Diplomacy can strengthen these alliances and not just in S&T.  However, it is not so certain that these allies will be so resolute.  Japan, in particular, must face the reality that its neighbor is now the 400 lb. gorilla, not the US.  In S&T allied governments can create incentives for its high tech industry to form joint ventures in the face of Chinese competititon.  Scientists could encouraged to collaborate with allies.  While not now an ally, India could be cultivated.  As the world’s largest democracy it has much in common with the West, including a suspicion of Chinese intentions.

2. Promote English. One of the West’s greatest advantages is that English is the lingua franca of science.  Imagine how difficult it would be to compete if the world’s best science was reported in Chinese or some other language that takes a lifetime to learn.  The French have long had international programs that promote their language, which could be emulated.

3. Keep international graduates here. American universities are still a magnet for grad students.  Most pix of US research groups look like a UN caucus, but with few US students.  It is just crazy to force these grads to leave the US.  More would stay with a bit of encouragement, and the assurance that they are welcome.

4. Demand reform of the exchange rate.  The engine that drives PRC progress is an artificial exchange rate that makes it impossible for others to compete, brings in vast amounts of dollars and euros, which then pay for huge R&D investments and investments in science education–and advanced weapons systems that are clearly intended to kill Americans.

There are others, but note that none of these are very expensive.  They just require some understanding of the problem by national leaders and the will to do something about them.

R. D. Shelton

NSB Warns that Globalization is a Threat the US Science Leadership

March 9th, 2010

The National Science Board was apparently so alarmed by the findings in the latest SEI2010 that it has released a companion report calling for remedial action–Globalization of Science and Engineering Research.    The last paragraph of the letter of transmittal from Chair Steven Beering says, “We urge Federal attention and action to sustain U.S. world leadership in S&E in response to growing S&E capacity around the world.  Our nation’s future prosperity and security depend on a strong and unwavering Federal committment to this goal.”

One of three major recommendations calls for OSTP to engage all Federal research agencies to: (a) develop means to assess or continue to assess the quality of their agency’s supported research against international activities, and (b) to identify and as appropriate make adjustments necessary to ensure that their agency’s research is world-leading.”

NSF/ENG is already doing a good deal of this through the WTEC program, and other international activities.  I wonder if the NSB knows.

Of course, I have been saying much the same thing for years in this blog and elsewhere.  It’s gratifying to have others come to the same realization.

R. D. Shelton

Chinese Academy of Science Publishes WTEC Paper

February 25th, 2010

In July I presented a paper in Rio that predicted that the Chinese would soon pass the US and EU to lead the world in S&T: The Race for World Leadership for Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts, by R. D. Shelton and P. Foland.  This paper got little notice at the Rio conference and later in the US, but in China, people are paying more attention.  It was translated into Chinese by their Academy of Sciences and published in their journal, Science Focus in February, 2010.  All the versions of the paper are posted at http://itri2.org/Rpaper/

R. D. Shelton

Yet More Alarms from Manufacturing Technology News

February 21st, 2010

I got a free copy of the Feb. 12 issue via email from the editor, Richard McCormack.  I haven’t been subscribing to this newsletter,  since I was too cheap to spring for the $495 per year.  This issue convinces me that I have to subscribe, since it covers “Innovation, Globalization, and Industrial Competitiveness,”  much the same scope as this blog.  For example, some of the articles this time were:

1. US Becomes a Bit Player in Global Semiconductor Industry. 

2. Obama Puts International Comparison Program on Chopping Block

3. NIST’s Chief Economist: US Needs a New Direction

4. US Government Finds Thousands of Fake Parts in DOD Supply Chains

5. First Time Ever: [DOD] QDR Addresses Decline of US Industrial Base

All of these articles document decline of American S&T.  For example the first one reports the shocking statistic that in 2009 the US started construction of one (1) semiconductor fabrication (fab) plant in 2009.  The PRC started six (6), Taiwan five (5), then next was the EU, Korea, Japan, and the US, all with one (1) each.  Further, China considers Taiwan to also be its turf, and they are already de facto one and the same in the IT sector.   Thus Greater China started more than twice as many fabs as the rest of the world put together–and eleven times that of the US alone, which invented this business, of course.

http://www.manufacturingnews.com

R. D. Shelton

The President’s FY2011 Budget for S&T

February 13th, 2010

Despite his call for cuts in discretionary spending, President Obama has proposed substantial increases in the research budgets of some S&T agencies.  These increases based on the regular FY2010 budget are:

NSF +8.2% to $6.02 billion

DOE Office of Science +4.4% to $5.12 billion

NIST +13.5% to $0.58 billion

DOD basic (6.1) +6.2% to $2.00 billion

DOD applied (6.2) research -11.6% to $4.48 billion

I got these bottom line figures from the FYI newsletter from the American Physical Society.

The AAAS will track the R&D budget as it goes through a maze of Congressional actions.  The Congress has its own ideas, and along about October 1, 2010 when the budget is supposed to take effect, they will send a final budget bill to the President to sign (or veto).

http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/fy2011/

R. D. Shelton

Blogging as a Participant Sport

February 10th, 2010

On the occasion of my centennial article, I thought I would ruminate on my experience with this on-line medium.  Besides, I’m snowbound and have run out of things to do.

From 1998 to 2003 I put out 60 monthly issues of ITRInews, until my toddlers took over my play time to play with them. I prepared the e-letter in HTML to post with color and pix, and then dumbed it down to pure text to push a headlines version out via an email list-serve.  Now that my kids can entertain themselves with their own PCs, I tried out the blog medium a year ago, and love it.  With the help of Patricia Foland and Kevin O’Mara, I use WordPress, a free application that makes it easy.  In principle, readers can get new postings pushed to them via email or RSS feeds.  In practice this blog, like many others, doesn’t seem to get much attention, at least as measured by comments posted on articles.  Actually search engines quickly index blog posts, and Web host logs reveal a fair number of hits, particularly to older posts.  If you want traffic, apparently your blog needs to be controversial, and then you may get more rants than you want, including battling rants from two or more weirdos, quite unrelated to the original post.

Blogs are fun to write, more fun than to read.  Writers immemorial have been advised to keep a journal of ideas, snatches of writing, and factoids, so that they could eventually compile them into a product like the Great American Novel.  Blogs are just the latest incarnation, except that other people were never expected to read your journal.  Now many bloggers are disappointed unless they get a lot of comments.  It’s probably just as well, though.  Much Web discourse is really offensive.  People constantly write things that would get them a punch in the nose if they uttered them in public.

I went to the Washington Post site yesterday, thinking that I would chide them in an old-fashioned letter to the editor about their series of scurrilous articles on Jack Murtha who passed away on Monday.  Their front page obituary had continued the same attack, but at least he won’t be troubled by them anymore.  Instead I got diverted by their on-line forum commenting on the obit.  What crap!  Most of the postings made the Post’s attacks seem genteel.  These online forums are so vicious that it is little wonder they have driven people to suicide.

The Internet and its Web application are wondrous things.  They have made our lives so much richer with information resources unimaginable only a few years ago. They have eliminated the gatekeepers who kept artists like writers and musicians from their audiences.  They bring the world’s best products to our home, no matter how arcane they are.  But, the Internet has its dark side: spam, porn, phishing, viruses (and anti-virus programs that are worse), predators of all kinds preying on the weak and ignorant, hackers who seem to be too sophisticated to not have national governments behind them, and more.  But my peeve is that Web anonymity encourages excesses in language that have made acceptable a level of mindless hate that is poisoning our culture.  Maybe talk radio inspired this earlier, and the Web is just catching up.  Or is ancient email flaming the antecedent of all this vitriol?  And now we see this trend moving from the virtual world to the real world of town hall meetings and the floor of the Congress.

I think hate is the most powerful emotion, way ahead of love.   For example I believe the great success of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic religions is more due to Hell than Heaven.  Heaven sounds like Sunday church services, only longer.  But Hell is a place where your enemies will roast forever!  Thus, I think the best way to motivate people to your side is not to convince them how great your ideas are, because they probably wouldn’t like them.  Instead it’s much easer to get them to hate your opponent.  Any kind of charges will do, truth, or even plausibility, is not necessary.  Americans will believe anything, if you repeat it enough.

You don’t believe me? Consider this.  To convince the American public to support the invasion of Iraq, Bush Administration spokesmen would emphatically pronounce sentences like this, “Saddam Hussain (here insert 1-2 dozen impressive sounding and patriotic words, always including at least one “freedom”) 9/11 attacks on America.”  The words in between most assuredly did not actually say that Hussain was behind the attacks, which could be easily refuted since it wasn’t true.  Instead, by putting the two unrelated concepts in the same sentence, one after another, they just gave the impression that one caused the other.  Having taken a high school English course, I could parse the sentences to see what mischief was afoot.  This sort of thing convinced me at the time that the Administration’s case for war was weak, because if they had facts they certainly would have used them.    After hearing this propaganda for months, however, more than half of Americans surveyed believed that Hussain was behind 9/11.

The failure of the 2009 health care initiative had nothing to do with health care.  It was a wedge issue that could allow Obama’s opponents to defeat and cripple him.  And the way they did it was to incite enough people to hate him.  He’s been called a nazi, communist, socialist, and at the recent CPAC, a monarchist!  I just hope the Secret Service has had a competence implant after the state dinner fiasco.  I had attended an Obama event a month earlier and had commented at the time on how lax the security was.

But I digress, as old professors do. Blogging is great, you should try it.   If not, you could make a blogger happy by commenting on his or her article.  Just keep it civil.

R. D. Shelton

DARPA’s Worldwide Mission

February 8th, 2010

From the DARPA website: 

 ”DARPA’s original mission, inspired by the Soviet Union beating the United States into space with Sputnik, was to prevent technological surprise. This mission has evolved over time. Today, DARPA’s mission is to prevent technological surprise for us and to create technological surprise for our adversaries.

DARPA’s main tactic for executing its strategy is to constantly search worldwide for revolutionary high-payoff ideas and then sponsor projects bridging the gap between fundamental discoveries and the provision of new military capabilities.”

http://www.darpa.mil/stratvision.html

R. D. Shelton

DOD Goals for World Class S&T

February 8th, 2010

The Director of Defense Research and Engineering coordinates department-wide S&T, including supervision of DARPA and the R&D activities of the individual armed services. 

In July 2009, DDR&E introduced four Imperatives to focus the organization in support of the immediate and
future needs of the Department of Defense:

    Accelerate delivery of technical capabilities to win the current fight
    Prepare for an uncertain future
    Reduce the cost, acquisition time and risk of our major defense acquisition programs
    Develop world class science, technology, engineering, and mathematics capabilities for the DoD and the Nation

http://www.dod.mil/ddre/index.html

I think that to measure their progress against that last goal, they need to evaluate where the US stands relative to others.  The Congress seems to agree.  Here is the text of a law (10 C 2365) that establishes a Global Research Watch Program.

(a) Program.— The Director of Defense Research and Engineering shall carry out a Global Research Watch program in accordance with this section.

(b) Program Goals.— The goals of the program are as follows:

(1) To monitor and analyze the basic and applied research activities and capabilities of foreign nations in areas of military interest, including allies and competitors.

(2) To provide standards for comparison and comparative analysis of research capabilities of foreign nations in relation to the research capabilities of the United States.

(3) To assist Congress and Department of Defense officials in making investment decisions for research in technical areas where the United States may not be the global leader.

(4) To identify areas where significant opportunities for cooperative research may exist.

(5) To coordinate and promote the international cooperative research and analysis activities of each of the armed forces and Defense Agencies.

(6) To establish and maintain an electronic database on international research capabilities, comparative assessments of capabilities, cooperative research opportunities, and ongoing cooperative programs.

(c) Focus of Program.— The program shall be focused on research and technologies at a technical maturity level equivalent to Department of Defense basic and applied research programs.

(d) Coordination.—

(1) The Director shall coordinate the program with the international cooperation and analysis activities of the military departments and Defense Agencies.

(2) The Secretaries of the military departments and the directors of the Defense Agencies shall provide the Director of Defense Research and Engineering such assistance as the Director may require for purposes of the program.

(e) Classification of Database Information.— Information in electronic databases of the Global Research Watch program shall be maintained in unclassified form and, as determined necessary by the Director, in classified form in such databases.

(f) Termination.— The requirement to carry out the program under this section shall terminate on September 30, 2011.

R. D. Shelton

Model Accurately Predicts Growth in Chinese Publication at US Expense

January 22nd, 2010

Our Rio paper contained quantitative predictions of how much Chinese scientific publication would continue to grow at US expense.  Data in the new Science and Engineering Indicators 2010 allow some checking of these forecasts.  The model calculates publication share from forecasts of R&D investment share.  The data used was for 2005 then available from NSF (in S&EI2008) on the number of scientific papers and from OECD on national investments in R&D (GERD).

In 2005 the publication shares based on the 35 country OECDgroup (with more than 90% of world publication) were:
US  (30.9%)
PRC (6.3%)

Our forecast for 2007, made based on 2005 data, was:
US (29.6%)
PRC (7.9%)

The actuals for 2007 in the new SEI2010 report are:
US (29.9%)
PRC (8.1%)

Not bad for government work, particularly since some don’t even know what direction these time series are heading or why. I suspect that the small difference between forecast and actuals is because China increased their GERD share a little faster than we forecast.  I can check that from the latest OECD data and put it in a comment.

So what? Well, if my model continues to forecast correctly the rapid rise of China, it predicts that China will actually pass the US in well less than ten years to lead the world.  This is despite China’s current share being far below that of the US in this key indicator of scientific supremacy.

As shown in the Rio paper, China has already passed the US in some databases of physical science publications.  The paper also has forecasts of about a dozen other indicators of national S&T performance.  In two cases, high tech manufacturing market share, and the number of science and engineering PhDs produced, the paper’s forecasts that China would soon pass the US have already occured in the data newly available.  Also, China will likely pass the US in the number of researchers when the 2008 data becomes available.  Have a nice day, particularly if you are in the PRC. (:))

The Rio paper is here.

R. D. Shelton

2010 Edition of NSF S&EI Shows US Decline

January 22nd, 2010

Every two years the NSF/SRS Division produces a wonderful collection of science and engineering indicators, mostly on the US, but with a lot of international comparisons.  Many analysts, including myself, use the data that they have compiled to draw additional conclusions.  I’ll post an example of this next.

For some years I have been pointing with alarm at the loss of US S&T leadership, based this data and other sources.  This year NSF is finally highlighting the same issue, after years of downplaying it.  The first sentence in their press release announcing the report says, “The state of the science and engineering (S&E) enterprise in America is strong, yet its lead is slipping…” which is attributed to Rolf Lehming.  In the next paragraph, Kei Kozumi of OSTP, says, “U.S. dominance has eroded significantly.”

The press release has links to the report and its data in .pdf  and .xls format.

 http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116238&org=NSF&from=news

R. D. Shelton